Euribor 1/4/2009 (at 12 months)

Forecast of April average: 1,706 (Reliability: 5%)
Oficial value of day 1/4/09: 1,801

__Date___Interest rate_
01-April 1,801 -0,011 -> Reduction compared prev. day:-0,607%
02-April 1,791 -ECB hypothetic reduction rates:-0,25
03-April 1,781 Theorical expected value
06-April 1,771 Theorical expected value
07-April 1,761 Theorical expected value
08-April 1,751 Theorical expected value
09-April 1,741 Theorical expected value
14-April 1,731 Theorical expected value
15-April 1,721 Theorical expected value
16-April 1,711 Theorical expected value
17-April 1,701 Theorical expected value
20-April 1,691 Theorical expected value
21-April 1,681 Theorical expected value
22-April 1,671 Theorical expected value
23-April 1,661 Theorical expected value
24-April 1,651 Theorical expected value
27-April 1,641 Theorical expected value
28-April 1,631 Theorical expected value
29-April 1,621 Theorical expected value
30-April 1,611 Theorical expected value

This is an example with the interest rate showed above:
A mortgage of 180.000 €.
Quantity added by the bank to the official interest rate: + 0,5
Mortgage years: 30.
The monthly payment will be: 684,01€
Compared one year ago (in April'08: 1001,79 €):
Expected monthly savings will be.: 317 €
Expected Yearly savings will be.: 3813 € (-31,72%)

(The monthly payments are calculated using the french metod type)

Euribor rates from 1 week to 11 months of 1/04/2009:

1 we.	2 we.	3 we.	1 mo.	2 mo.	3 mo.	4 mo.
0,981	1,008	1,049	1,105	1,308	1,498	1,571
5 mo.	6 mo.	7 mo.	8 mo.	9 mo.	10 mo.	11 mo.
1,608	1,656	1,689	1,711	1,73	1,753	1,777

Comments: This forecast has been done taking into account a hypothetic reduction rates of 25 basic points, leaving the official interest rate at 1,00. If at the end the ECB won't reduce the interest rate, obviously the forecast will be different.
But from my point of view there are two additional scenes:

• ECB lefts unchanged the rates in April, and the reduction will be done in May of 50 basic points.
• Or the reduction of 50 basic points will be done in April leaving the interest rates in Euro Zone at 1%, and from my point of view this will be the possible floor of interest rates in Euro Zone.
• Or the example with I'm considering above reducing 25 basic points in April and additional 25 point will be reduced in May or June, the target will be the same leaving the interest rates at 1%.
  

Note: On right you have a small application where you can calculate your mortgage monthly payment.

Published date: 01/04/2009 at 11:30